An analysis using original FOODSECURE scenarios suggest that agricultural output expands over a range of 45-65% between 2010 and 2050, with assumptions on growth and technological progress driving much of the results. This session discusses the implications of strategies for agricultural output growth and land use, under various degrees of environmental protection. There are apparent trade-offs and synergies between agricultural intensification and extensification strategies across agricultural production regions. In this session, policy options are presented to address food system sustainability with more immediate and longer term objectives. The options are put on a scale of time and responsiveness for improving the food system. Next, the session focuses on the recent political breakthrough under UNFCCC to pursue “efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels” and investigates how it holds great promise or constraints for agriculture and food security. Agents in the food system are challenged to contribute substantially to mitigation efforts to achieve this ambitious climate change stabilisation target. Several mitigation strategies are potentially in competition with food production. Particularly in low and middle income countries, the coherence of climate action and FNS requires due attention. Development of the bioeconomy can reduce the costs of mitigation.
Environmental sustainability of the food system – Long term scenarios, robust policy responses and the 1.5˚C warming by Elke Stehfest (PBL) and Hugo Valin (IIASA)
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